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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd