Just 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him for missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were a sign or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. When Rogers curled home his second to restore Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a team that have strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – but at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their star man to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality whereby, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a vital England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
