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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.

But the current race is distinctly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and longtime also-rans improving collectively. During an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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